467 research outputs found

    From integrated to integrative: Delivering on the paris agreement

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    In pursuit of the drastic transformations necessary for effectively responding to climate change, the Paris Agreement stresses the need to design and implement sustainable, robust, and socially acceptable policy pathways in a globally coordinated and cooperative manner. For decades, the scientific community has been carrying out quantitative modelling exercises in support of climate policy design, primarily by means of energy systems and integrated assessment modelling frameworks. Here, we describe in detail the context of a hitherto ineffective scientific contribution to policymaking, highlight the available means to formulate a new paradigm that overcomes existing and emerging challenges, and ultimately call for change. In particular, we argue that individual modelling exercises alone widen the gap between formal representation and real-life context in which decisions are taken, and investigate major criticisms to which formalised modelling frameworks are subject. We essentially highlight the importance of employing diverse modelling ensembles, placing the human factor at the core of all modelling processes, and enhancing the robustness of model-driven policy prescriptions through decision support systems. These altogether compose a truly integrative approach to supporting the design of effective climate policy and sustainable transitions and, therefore, strengthen the modelling-policymaking interface. © 2018 by the authors

    A multiple-uncertainty analysis framework for integrated assessment modelling of several sustainable development goals

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    This research introduces a two-level integration of climate-economy modelling and portfolio analysis, to simulate technological subsidisation with implications for multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), across socioeconomic trajectories and considering different levels of uncertainties. We use integrated assessment modelling outputs relevant for progress across three SDGs namely air pollution-related mortality (SDG3), access to clean energy (SDG7) and greenhouse gas emissions (SDG13) calculated with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) for different subsidy levels for six sustainable technologies, across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), feeding them into a portfolio analysis model. Optimal portfolios that are robust in the individual socioeconomic scenarios as well as across the socioeconomic scenarios are identified, by means of an SSP-robustness score. A second link between the two models is established, by feeding portfolio analysis results back into GCAM. Application in a case study for Eastern Africa confirms that most SSP-robust portfolios show smaller output ranges among scenarios

    The effect of lubricant supply and frequency upon the behaviour of EHD films subjected to vibrations

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    Machine elements such as rolling element bearings or gears often experience vibrations due to for example geometrical inaccuracies, shock loading, rotating unbalanced masses, and others. These machine elements rely on a very thin lubricant film to protect the metallic surfaces from direct contact and eventual damage. Rapid variation of load in elastohydrodynamic contacts it is influenced by the so-called squeeze film effect, however, when both entrainment and squeeze are present, the conditions of film formation are more complex. It is expected that the lubricant film thickness is influenced by the amplitude and frequency of the vibrations. At the same time, as it is known that the film thickness is established in the inlet of the contact, it is equally important to evaluate what is the role played by the supply of lubricant to the contact under oscillatory conditions. To date there are not many studies on the effect of the oscillatory motion parameters upon the behaviour of the lubricant film. In this study the focus is on the effect of the frequency of vibrations and the supply of lubricant upon the film thickness
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